"Housing prices are rising and rising", "this is not going well" or "nobody can pay more" - that is how broken down, the statements of the population, but also some of the experts. The bank study shows a more differentiated and different picture for the long-term view.
On the one hand Banks confirms the still prevailing tendencies in the real estate market and the assumptions of the consumers with regard to the price development, but also shows long-term developments that are at first glance considered unlikely.
Regional population development is crucial
The study, conducted by Professor Mike Braunger, an expert on Economic Trend Research, reveals interesting perspectives for the year 2030. Cities that are still perceived as the clear winners in terms of population growth and real estate price development are slipping. Regions that are currently considered as midfield are moving up to the top.
The study primarily takes into account demographic trends, including the influx of refugees in 2015 and their remaining in Germany. This group of people primarily benefits Berlin and other cities and communities in East Germany.
Shift in the attractiveness of locations
However, in the municipalities, which are currently experiencing bottlenecks in the real estate market, immigration Fis leading to further tension in the rental sector in the short term. In the long term, Berlin will be among the leaders in the development of real estate prices.0n the other hand, also present with overheated real estate prices, is one of the losers.
There is movement in the real estate market. As before, the square meter prices are primarily only the way up. However, long-term investment planning requires that not only the current housing market be considered, but also future development.
The influx of foreign citizens as well as a change in the demography lead to shifts in the lucrative and less lucrative locations. In addition to the location, the size of the living space should also be taken into account.
The trend towards single households leads to the greatest demand for two-room apartments, but here too the number of square meters in demand is increasing. Regions such as Leipzig, Potsdam or Berlin are among the winners in the demand, the hard core of the Ruhr area with two-digit slump in real estate prices clearly among the losers.